Falling Sea Freight Rates Asia–Europe

29 September 2025

Since the end of last month, we have seen a strong downward trend in sea freight rates from Asia to Northern Europe. In the third week of August, just after the peak season had passed, rates began to fluctuate slightly. Logical, so soon after the peak season?  Not necessarily. At this same period last year, rates were still relatively high. What underlies this completely different market behaviour?

End of the Peak Season

The summer peak season, and with it the school holidays, has come to an end. Shops are largely stocked with winter fashion, and supplementary items are arriving gradually. All of this creates more stability and routine, easing the pressure on most shippers—at least for the moment.

This is also why factory closures during the upcoming Chinese Golden Week have far less impact on logistics chains than the festivities around Chinese New Year in February.

What is remarkable, compared with September last year, is how rapidly rates are falling. What is driving this change?

Rerouting Becomes ‘Normal’

Container sea freight rates from Asia to Europe are now more than half the levels of September 2024. A key factor here is acceptance. The Red Sea crisis, along with the additional transit time via the Cape of Good Hope, has now become an established reality —unlike the uncertainty it caused last year.

Where this turnaround previously caused unrest, leading carriers to maintain artificially high rates, we no longer see that effect.

Furthermore, the container market appears to be better balanced. In addition to ongoing demand for capacity, there is finally more supply available, in contrast to previous years.

From Shortage to Surplus

Many new, larger container ships have entered service. There are also numerous vessels on order, which will be introduced to the seas in the not-too-distant future. These container giants are significantly larger than their predecessors, providing far greater cargo space. This comes at an opportune time: extensive rerouting is still ongoing, and every additional unit of capacity remains highly welcome.

This shift has been largely driven by the enormous profits made by shipping lines during the COVID period. The gains realised have, among other things, been invested in a larger container fleet.

It appears that the shortage of capacity is gradually transforming into a surplus —a development that will, now and in the future, hopefully also benefit freight forwarders and shippers.