Forecasts for road transport in 2026

30 October 2025

The recently published report ‘Cost developments in road transport’ covered the collective bargaining negotiations, developments around sustainability, and the estimated percentage increases. But the most important element was the new truck levy, which will be charged on all domestic road transports from 1 July 2026. We have summarised the report for you below.

Key points in 2025-2026 report

On Thursday 2 October, Panteia, TLN and evofenedex published their report on developments in road transport costs. After a brief review of the past year, there was naturally a lot of focus on the expectations for 2026. These are the things that you need to take into account.

Traffic jams

There have never been so many traffic jams in the Netherlands as there were last year. We have to expect a lot of delays in 2026 as well. After all, necessary repairs and maintenance on various roads, flyovers, tunnels and bridges are once again planned. In addition, there seems to be no end in sight for port congestion in the short term, and more border checks with Germany have been announced for the coming year.

Increase in diesel surcharge 2026/2027

Although the government has decided to extend the current excise duty rebate for another year, diesel prices are still expected to rise sharply. This is particularly due to the revised European Directive REDIII, which seeks to accelerate the energy transition and meet European climate targets. REDIII is intended to encourage the transition to zero emission transport. This will make the cost of improving sustainability visible in the diesel price.

Collective labour agreement negotiations

The consequences of the collective labour agreement negotiations, which are still ongoing, are not yet clear. However, it does seem plausible that it will include 6.1% in anticipated wage cost development, and changes are also expected in social security contributions

Truck levy plus percentage cost increase

All importers will be charged the estimated cost increase for road transport from 1 January 2026. You can find this later in our article.

This will also include an amount for the truck levy for anyone using domestic freight transport from 1 July 2026.

How will the truck levy work?

From 1 July next year, anyone using domestic freight transport will encounter the truck levy, also known as ‘road pricing’.

Motor vehicle tax (MRB) for trucks up to 12,000 kg will be scrapped (it will be considerably reduced for trucks over 12,000 kg) and the Eurovignette will be abolished in the Netherlands simultaneously with the introduction of the truck levy.

Set against that, the new levy will be introduced for trucks over 3500 kg on almost all motorways and a number of N roads. This is to prevent any rat running as much as possible. Zero-emission vehicles up to 4250 kg are exempt from charges. The rate is determined by three factors:

CO2 emission class of the vehicle used + weight + kilometrage

What makes things complicated for everyone is that this means the cost will almost always be variable. For an example, see our previous article on the subject. In order to provide additional information, the Netherlands Vehicle Authority (RDW) has created a dedicated website: Vrachtwagenheffing in Nederland | Vrachtwagenheffing

Team Ritra Cargo is already in background discussions with its carriers about these upcoming changes. By assessing early what we need to take into account next year, we can provide you with timely and complete information, as you would expect from us.

Things to consider in 2026

A brief summary:

• Impact of the collective labour agreement negotiations will become clear later in the year
• Severe traffic jams due to congestion, border checks and road maintenance
• Increase in diesel prices to encourage zero emission transport
• Expected road transport cost developments from 1 January 2026: 3.4%-4.8%*
• Truck levy from 1 July will result in a variable second increase on domestic road transport in 2026

* this is excluding fuel surcharge and excluding truck levy

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