Road transport forecast for 2022

26 October 2021

Every year, Panteia, TLN, and evofenedex report on cost development indices for road transport. It is considered the ultimate guiding principle in cost negotiations for 2022 by many carriers and forwarders. The current market conditions are leading factors for the cost developments in road transport over the coming year. Allow us to explain what this means for you.

Challenging market conditions

The impact of the coronavirus crisis is still pressing upon us. Road transport is now also affected by the global container shortages. The long lead times have an impact on the delivery times of materials. In addition, the cost of raw materials – and with it, the purchase value of trucks – has risen significantly.

The booming economy means road transport is on the up. Transport companies are handling more business than before the coronavirus crisis. This growth also means more demand for staff. COVID has hit many drivers. Increased sick leave has meant rising healthcare costs, but also a shortage of drivers. This shortage comes on top of the already very scarce labour market.

Driver shortages putting extra pressure on costs

We are dealing with an immense shortage of drivers. According to the STL (Sector Institute for Transport and Logistics), there are about 10,400 driving vacancies. This shortage is predominantly caused by the rising number of vacancies. The number of drivers is growing, but not enough to meet demand.

Another part of the problem is the ageing population. Once again, many drivers will retire in the next twelve months. An additional 2,571 drivers started work during the second quarter of 2021. However, 2,204 colleagues left the profession. The recruitment of new drivers is in full swing. Every effort is made to fill the vacancies.

Extra funds will have to be made available to recruit and retain new drivers. Another issue is training for future drivers. It is to be expected that wage growth and extra recruitment costs will take up large chunks of the budget.

Expected tariff increases for road transport in 2022

Nobody knows how the situation surrounding the coronavirus will develop. It remains difficult to forecast, the same as last year. The report on the 2022 road transport forecast shows the following tariff increases as we move on from 2021:

• Sea containers: +4.3%
• Pallet transport: +5.3%

The fuel prices, with further increases expected over the coming year, is not included in the figures above: this depends on the market situation, and is also the reason why carriers and hauliers work with a diesel surcharge. This surcharge is reviewed on a monthly basis. Ritra Cargo sends an e-mail to its customers every month to let them know about this surcharge.

The negotiations with our road haulage operators will take place at the end of the year. The tariff increases for road transport in 2022 will probably be in line with the outcome of the report above.

Source: Cost development in road transport in 2021 and 2022, Panteia.